Diving into the FantasySP Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart and determining how to approach players who are moving up or down.
It’s time for another Trade Value Chart watch story, where we point out some of the biggest movers over the past week.
The Trade Value Chart is used in the FSP Trade Analyzer and many other tools here. By checking out the biggest movers each week, you can know when to buy/sell a fantasy player. Here’s last week’s story. Let’s get into it!
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Rising, Falling
A lot of times, team’s running backs will offset each other (with one rising and the other falling) because of injuries, but that isn’t the full story in the Jacksonville backfield.
Starter Travis Etienne is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he’s seeing his player rating/trade value fall because he’s being outplayed by Tank Bigsby. Etienne has seen his value drop over two points in the past week, while Bigsby has risen 3.4 points.
Etienne has 231 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season, but has just 53 attempts across five games. He’s failed to top 70 rushing yards in a game, and hasn’t gone over 13 carries.
The only thing that’s kept Etienne from completely having his fantasy value destroyed has been his pass-catching ability. He’s got 91 yards on 16 catches and 22 targets this season – 70 of those yards and 11 of the catches have come in the past three weeks.
Etienne hasn’t had a monster fantasy showing all season, instead being slightly below-average most weeks, along with a dud in week 4. Maybe his shoulder injury is limiting him, but I think it’s more because of the play of Bigsby that Etienne is seeing his once workhorse role disappear.
Bigsby is up to 273 yards and two touchdowns across 34 rushing attempts – that’s an 8-yard average. He battled an injury early in the season, but has 20 attempts, 191 yards and two touchdowns on the ground the past two weeks.
Bigsby has just one target this season, which he turned into a 28-yard reception in week 5. Even though he only played 23 snaps that week, he led all fantasy backs in PPR formats.
If not for Bigsby’s early-season injury, this backfield might already belong to him. It sure looks like he’s going to take over as the top ball carrier after week 5, but it’s also not a done deal yet, and because Etienne can still impact the game as a pass catcher, his trade value is still reasonably high.
Bigsby was a waiver wire option just a little bit ago, so not too many people are going to pay a hefty price for him, but if you believe he’s indeed taking over the Jacksonville backfield, I’d be for targeting him. If you picked up Bigsby and are already stacked at running back, I’d probably wait for another big performance from him to see if he can increase his trade value even more.
As for Etienne, I’m not sold that he’s going to become fantasy irrelevant, but I’m confident that he’s no longer the workhorse. He’s trending toward being a pretty big draft bust, and now might be the last week you can still get decent value for him in return.
You won’t get much, but you can maybe land a flex option in return who is in a better situation than Etienne. He’s got some solid value in PPR leagues still, and those are the leagues you should be trying to deal him away in. See if you can land another back in return, or go after a receiver or tight end if you are lacking there. I think Etienne’s fantasy value could keep dropping in a hurry, and I’d do my best to bail before things get any worse.
Keeps Rising, but is Injured Now
Kraft came into the season looking like the Packers’ No. 2 tight end, but it became apparent early on that he was the clear No. 1 option.
Kraft has now been the No. 1 PPR fantasy TE in back-to-back weeks, and his fantasy/trade value continues to rise. He’s up 3.1 points from last week, and that’s factoring in an injury he’s dealing with.
He was added to the injury report with a groin injury, which is never a good thing. It comes at an inopportune time, as Kraft is not only trending up, but was destined for possibly even more as , the team’s other tight end, is likely going to be placed on injured reserve.
The fact that Kraft practiced in a limited fashion is somewhat encouraging, maybe meaning the injury only keeps him out one week, at most.
If you scooped up Kraft, or drafted and stashed him to this point of the season, you had to be feeling good about his outlook moving forward. The injury complicates things though.
If you are desperate for a fantasy TE, then you probably should just hold on to Kraft. You could try swapping him for another tight end, but Kraft probably hasn’t done quite enough yet to land you a guy like in return, and I’d want a consistent contributor in return.
If Kraft was just a backup, and you roster , , , or Ferguson as your top guy, I’d heavily consider trading Kraft right now.
His trade value has risen enough where you should be able to net a flex starting option at RB/WR in return if you wanted. A fantasy owner desperate enough for a fantasy TE will take a gamble on Kraft even with his injury.
I personally think Kraft won’t be hindered too much by the injury, but if you are even slightly worried about it, why not deal Kraft away now and not have to worry about the situation anymore?
Continues to Fall
Adams was a top-20 fantasy draft pick on average, but after requesting a trade and missing the past two weeks, his fantasy/trade value is plummeting fast.
He had 209 yards, a touchdown, 18 catches and 27 targets through three weeks. That’s not elite fantasy production when talking about Adams, but it was enough to confidently keep starting him every week.
Then, he had an “injury” pop up, and then the trade request came about. With no deal in place and an uncertain future ahead, Adams’ player rating sits at a 16.4 right now. His rating was hovering around 23 after the first couple weeks of the season.
Some fantasy owners can afford to just stash Adams, or place him on IR with his “injury.” Others need fantasy help now, and trading away Adams makes the most sense.
On his big name and potential alone, a fantasy owner still should get a decent return for Adams. You might not get a player back who was drafted in the first two rounds, but getting any kind of help right now is the bigger priority.
There’s several receivers sitting around Adams on the trade chart right now, and because of his big name and fantasy success in the past, you might be able to land a player ranked quite a ways ahead of Adams. With an uncertain future, and no trade imminent, I’d be fine moving Adams now.
Sure, he could be traded to a better fantasy situation by this time next week, but like I said before, some of us fantasy owners cannot afford to wait any longer. Instead of hoping for the best, go get yourself some immediate fantasy help and leave the Adams’ dilemma to someone else.
#trades #2024-fantasy-football
